I think everyone can agree when I say, “what a fucking day.” My heart has been bleeding for Ukraine suffering under Russia, for the fear the world has, and for what the world may have to endure.
I commend Ukraine for standing up against the Russian army, for being defiant to the last. I commend the protesters in Russia for going against the will of an oligarch. I commend the Russian troops that surrendered because that’s not what they signed up for.
But my brain races. I fear what comes. I don’t want to weigh down any one particular person, so I figured that writing here and putting it out in the void that is the internet would be cathartic.
Russia fighting with Ukraine sets a precedent for China and Taiwan. Russia and China have decided to move away from trading through the US dollar and are instead directly converting currency. China has more than 50% of the worlds grain, and has lifted all wheat import restrictions on Russia. This allows Russia to trade en masse to China, perhaps to allow for some profit to fuel wars.
Ukraine was a partner to China for recreating the fabled “silk road.” If Russia were to conquer Ukraine, it’d allow Russia to present that at a far cheaper cost than if it were to be done through a bilateral partnership between China and Ukraine. Russia would benefit from the trade as a result.
If China setup a bolder alliance with Russia, directly supporting its zealous expansion (which it’s alluding to now), setting up sanctions against China becomes far more difficult for the west. China could go as far as placing sanctions of its own against the west, thereby inflicting damage to the western economy. It too would suffer from it (temporarily, addressed later), but not nearly as badly were it to not have a tight alliance with Russia.
The Turnabout in America
Faced with economic pressure and a general dissatisfaction about other policies that were not met by the demand of the American public, voter turnout would slump during the next election cycle. It’s not so much to have Republicans vote more, but rather to have enough Democrats disenfranchised with the system that they vote less.
Given that the prosecutors working on Trump’s case in the NY AG, we can guess that Trump will have another run at office. This will further sow discord in the west, as we’ve seen global adoption of his message outside of the US– most recently, inside Canada.
If Trump wins the office, it’s safe to assume that he’d lift sanctions placed against Russia, much to the spat of the rest of the international community. Trump withdraws from whatever had gone against Putin during his war(s), and works to mend things with China to the great disadvantage of the United States.
Putin’s dreams of recollecting the USSR, and Russia fighting with Ukraine is the first step. It is not nearly as sweet as seeing the USA put in the back pocket. From there, it’s expected that Democracy will go to shit, that violence will become resurgent in the US, and the international community is forced to fend for itself financially, strategically and socially.
There is a reckoning coming, and only brash, bold moves against the tide will stem it, but not without their own consequences.
This… this is what depresses me most, the chance that this will come to pass.